In 2013, India was labeled as part of the infamous “Fragile Five” economies—countries with large current account deficits, high inflation, and reliance on foreign investment. That tag sparked widespread debate and criticism. But now, a decade later, it’s time to ask a sobering question: If India was called fragile then, what should we call it today in 2025?
The data—both official and suppressed—paints a grim picture of a nation not only economically vulnerable but socially and institutionally fragile too. Here’s a detailed, issue-wise breakdown:
1. Debt Explosion: A Time Bomb Ticking
In 2013, India’s public debt stood at around ₹55 lakh crore. As of 2025, it has ballooned to over ₹160 lakh crore—nearly three times higher. This isn’t just a number; it represents a fiscal chokehold.
- Debt-to-GDP ratio has crossed 83% (Centre + States), far above the FRBM target.
- Interest payments now consume nearly half of the central government’s revenue receipts.
- Capital expenditure on health, education, and infrastructure is being sacrificed to service debt.
If this trend continues, India risks falling into a debt trap—borrowing just to pay interest.
2. Growth: Statistical Mirage, Not Economic Reality
India’s GDP growth is projected optimistically by government data, but it hides more than it reveals.
- The GDP contracted by 7.3% in FY21, the sharpest fall in independent India’s history.
- Post-pandemic recovery has been K-shaped, benefiting only the top 10%.
- Real wages are stagnant and MSME closures have crippled job creation.
Claiming “world’s fastest-growing economy” while the informal sector shrinks and millions face underemployment is not just misleading—it’s cruel.
3. Inflation and Currency: The Silent Tax on the Poor
While the government projects “manageable inflation,” the ground reality is stark:
- Food inflation is consistently above 8% in urban and rural India.
- The rupee has slid to historic lows against the US dollar (₹86/$), pushing up import bills.
- Fuel prices remain high despite lower global crude rates, due to heavy excise taxes.
Inflation is the most regressive tax, and it has eroded savings and consumption, especially among the middle and working classes.
4. Institutional Fragility: Erosion of Democratic Safeguards
If economic fragility is measurable, institutional decay is visible.
- The RBI’s autonomy was compromised during the demonetization and electoral bonds episode.
- The CAG, EC, and judiciary face credibility crises due to visible bias and silence on major irregularities.
- RTI dilution and crackdowns on journalists and activists have throttled transparency.
In 2013, despite economic challenges, India’s democratic institutions acted as shock absorbers. Today, they have become enablers of authoritarianism.
5. Social Cohesion: A Society Torn Apart
India in 2025 is socially polarized in ways unimaginable a decade ago.
- Hate crimes and communal violence have skyrocketed.
- Minorities live in fear, and academic institutions are being saffronized.
- The government’s own welfare data remains opaque, as seen with the 81 crore people on free rations despite being the “5th largest economy.”
What use is nominal GDP when social unrest, hate, and inequality threaten national integrity?
6. Foreign Policy: Headlines Without Substance
In 2013, India had stable ties with global and regional allies. In 2025:
- Relations with SAARC nations, Mauritius, and even Canada have soured.
- India remains unable to resolve LAC tensions with China.
- Foreign policy has become more about choreographed photo-ops than tangible diplomacy.
Modi’s “global leader” image serves domestic propaganda more than it delivers strategic wins.
Conclusion: From Fragile Five to Fragile Everything
Back in 2013, India had problems—but it had resilience, institutional strength, and leadership rooted in policy, not PR. In 2025, we’re dealing with:
- Unprecedented debt and inequality
- Deteriorating institutional integrity
- Exploding social tension and intolerance
- Governance by optics, not accountability
If we called it fragile in 2013, then today, let’s stop pretending. India isn’t just fragile. It’s fractured—economically, socially, and democratically.
